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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 616 WTPZ21 KNHC 291434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 551 FOPZ11 KNHC 291434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 17(70) X(70) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 16(35) 1(36) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 18(58) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Norman Graphics
2018-08-29 10:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 08:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 09:28:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-29 10:54:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 475 WTPZ41 KNHC 290854 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Even though there has been a dearth of microwave imagery overnight, Norman's infrared satellite signature has the look of a cyclone ready to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days. Banding continues to increase, with the convective canopy expanding in nearly all quadrants. Norman's initial intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ocean waters of nearly 30 degrees Celsius and low shear for the next couple of days are offering an ideal environment for Norman to rapidly intensify. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities, and overall the new intensity guidance is higher than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Based on these numbers, the updated NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward, close to the Florida State Superensemble and intensity consensus aids, but still not nearly as high as the HWRF or HCCA models. It wouldn't be surprising at all for the forecast intensities to be increased further in subsequent advisory packages, and Norman is likely to become a hurricane later today. Norman is moving westward, or 275/9 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge, which extends westward from northern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward during the next few days, causing Norman to continue westward--or even west-southwestward--at a fairly steady pace for the next 4-5 days. Except for the GFS, which appears to be a bit of a northern outlier, the remainder of the track guidance is tightly clustered, at least for the first 3 days. After that time, the overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward, requiring a subtle northward adjustment of the NHC official forecast by day 5. This new forecast generally lies closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.5N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-29 10:54:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 471 FOPZ11 KNHC 290854 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 18 2(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 28(61) 1(62) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 1(28) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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