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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-30 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 724 WTPZ31 KNHC 301447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 118.0W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 118.0 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A west-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west and west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday night or Saturday, however, Norman is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-08-30 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 725 WTPZ21 KNHC 301447 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 133.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 138.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 118.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-30 14:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 326 WTPZ41 KNHC 301232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 530 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Satellite data show that Norman continues to rapidly strengthen. Objective Dvorak data T-numbers from UW/CIMSS have increased to T6.5 or higher and the latest TAFB subjective data T-number is T6.5. These estimates support an initial intensity of 125 kt, making Norman a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. As a result of the increased initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward through 36 h, but it is otherwise unchanged. There has been no change to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1230Z 17.8N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-08-30 14:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 12:31:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 12:31:53 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-30 14:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1230 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 587 FOPZ11 KNHC 301230 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1230 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 46(72) 1(73) X(73) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 1(42) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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