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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)

2018-08-30 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORMAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 the center of Norman was located near 17.8, -117.4 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 8

2018-08-30 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 985 WTPZ31 KNHC 300846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 ...NORMAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 117.4W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 117.4 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west and west-northwest over the weekend. Satellite images indicate that Norman has been intensifying rapidly, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday night or Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-08-30 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 929 FOPZ11 KNHC 300846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 46(72) 1(73) X(73) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) 1(38) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 1(42) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-08-30 10:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 898 WTPZ21 KNHC 300845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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