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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-31 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 999 WTPZ41 KNHC 310233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 After the explosive intensification observed last night and earlier today, Norman's intensity has leveled off. The eye of the major hurricane remains quite circular and distinct with a solid eyewall surrounding the center. The eastern portion of the eyewall, however, has eroded a little during the past few hours. Based on the steady state appearance, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt, which lies at the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates. The environmental conditions surrounding Norman are expected to only gradually become less favorable with SSTs and mid-level humidity values slowly decreasing along Norman's track during the next few days. There is a possibility of eyewall replacement cycles in major hurricanes like Norman, which typically cause fluctuations in strength and are challenging to forecast. The intensity models all show a slow weakening trend, and the NHC forecast follows that theme. This forecast is slightly below the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models. Norman is moving west-southwestward at 8 kt steered by a northeast-southwest oriented deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. After that time, a change in the orientation of the ridge should cause Norman to turn to the west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed. The track models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 17.3N 119.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.5N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-31 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 the center of Norman was located near 17.3, -119.6 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 12
2018-08-31 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 525 WTPZ31 KNHC 310233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 ...NORMAN MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 119.6W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 119.6 West. Norman is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn toward the west and west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is anticipated, however, Norman is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-08-31 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 469 FOPZ11 KNHC 310233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 47(49) 22(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 28(33) 2(35) X(35) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 3(35) X(35) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 2(61) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 33(47) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-31 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 026 WTPZ21 KNHC 310232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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