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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-30 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 848 WTPZ41 KNHC 300236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Norman is steadily strengthening. Recent microwave images indicate that the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded eye feature evident in that data. The eye is not yet apparent in geostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in organization and the cloud tops continue to become colder. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an initial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to become better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is increased to 75 kt. Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the hurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions. The SHIPS rapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the short term. Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear and slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend. Satellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has slowed to 280/7 kt. All of the models show a mid-level ridge amplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few days, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter, a turn back to the west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is predicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the ridge. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-30 04:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 472 FOPZ11 KNHC 300236 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 57(65) 4(69) X(69) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 3(37) X(37) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) 4(52) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-30 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN ON A STRENGTHENING TREND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 the center of Norman was located near 17.9, -116.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 7
2018-08-30 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 405 WTPZ31 KNHC 300236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 ...NORMAN ON A STRENGTHENING TREND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 116.5W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 116.5 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Norman is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-08-30 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 772 WTPZ21 KNHC 300235 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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