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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-07 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071433 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 Linda continues to gain strength. The cloud pattern consists of a well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops and curved bands spiraling around it. There is no eye feature evident in satellite images, but a recent SSMIS microwave pass did indicate that an eye was present. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support raising the initial intensity to 85 kt, making Linda a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The rate of intensification of Linda has been an impressive 45 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane remains in a moist and relatively low wind shear environment and over 28-29 deg C waters. These favorable conditions should allow Linda to strengthen some more today, and it could reach major hurricane status by tonight. After that time, the waters begin to cool beneath the storm and environmental relative humidity values decrease. These more stable conditions should induce a weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in 4-5 days when it moves over sea surface temperatures of around 24 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the intensity model consensus thereafter. Linda has been on a steady northwestward track at about 12 kt for the past 12-24 hours, steered by a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This motion is expected to continue for about another day as the steering pattern is maintained. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-07 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071433 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 40 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 34 42 6(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-07 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071432 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-07 10:54:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 08:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 08:52:21 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-07 10:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070853 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 Linda has continued to rapidly strengthen overnight. An 0631 UTC GMI microwave overpass shows that a well-defined eye has developed within the very symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) feature that is seen in conventional satellite imagery. The eye has not yet become evident in the infrared satellite data. The initial wind speed has been increased to 75 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. Linda is likely to continue to rapidly strengthen today. The hurricane will be traversing very warm water and remain in a moist, low shear environment. The NHC intensity forecast now brings Linda to major hurricane strength in 24 hours, which is slightly above the intensity guidance. After that time, decreasing SSTs and less favorable thermodynamic factors are expected to cause weakening. A faster rate of decay is likely after 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs below 26C and into a much more stable environment. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is 315/12. The hurricane is forecast to move northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico. After that time, a weaker Linda should turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low to mid-level flow on the southern side of a low-level ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. The guidance has shifted a bit to the north at 72 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.7N 111.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.5N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.2N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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