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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-09-08 16:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081430 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-09-08 16:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 081430 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-08 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 08:47:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 08:52:18 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-08 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080846 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Recent microwave data indicate that the inner-core structure of Linda has improved since the previous advisory. A couple of AMSU overpasses show that the primary convective band once again wraps around the center, and that a ragged eye is trying to form. The microwave images and 0516 UTC ASCAT data were very helpful in locating the center of Linda, and these data indicate that the center is more embedded within the CDO than earlier in the evening. The initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt, which is between the various Dvorak intensity estimates. Given the recent increase in inner core organization, the initial wind speed estimate could be a little conservative. Although the official intensity forecast shows no change in strength during the next 12 hours, environmental conditions consisting of warm water and relatively low shear could allow for a little intensification this morning. After that time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic factors should cause weakening. The spin down should become more rapid in 36 to 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius and into a more stable environment. The tropical cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. Linda has been moving a little to the right of previous estimates, and the motion is now north-northwest or 335/9 kt. The model guidance suggests that the motion will bend back toward the northwest later today as the cyclone moves around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico. After 72 hours, the remnant low is expected to turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low-level flow to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The model envelope has again shifted to the right and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.1N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.8N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-09-08 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080846 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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