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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-09-09 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090232 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-09-09 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090231 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 115.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT.......30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT.......50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 450SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 115.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT...25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT...50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 65SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-08 22:54:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 20:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 20:53:49 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-08 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082039 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Linda still has an impressive satellite presentation, and appears to have peaked shortly after the last advisory was issued. A distinct eye in infrared imagery is surrounded by a CDO with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80C. The initial intensity is set to 110 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimate of T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.0/115 kt from TAFB. The 34-kt wind radii were adjusted outward based on an ASCAT-B pass around 1700 UTC. Linda will be crossing the 27C SST isotherm soon, and the cyclone should begin to slowly weaken. Rapid weakening is expected between 24 and 48 hours as the cyclone moves over much cooler SSTs and into a stable, dry environment. Remnant low status is forecast by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/12, as Linda has wobbled a bit to the left of the previous track. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as a weakening Linda should move northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west- northwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for the initial motion through 36 hours, and is largely an update of the previous NHC track after that time. The NHC forecast continues to lie on the left side of the guidance envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.9N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.6N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.5N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 27.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 27.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-08 22:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM LINDA BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 the center of LINDA was located near 21.9, -114.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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