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Hurricane LINDA Public Advisory Number 9
2015-09-08 04:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080252 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 ...LINDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 112.8W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with a steadier weakening likely by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are beginning to affect the coast of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next couple of days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-09-08 04:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080252 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-09-08 04:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080252 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.3N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 26.3N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-07 22:53:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 20:33:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 20:52:20 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-07 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072032 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 After strengthening at a rapid pace for the past day or so, it appears that Linda's intensity is leveling off. The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory and consists of a well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops. There remains no evidence of an eye in geostationary satellite pictures, although a ragged eye is apparent in microwave images. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are both 5.0/90 kt, so the initial wind speed is nudged upward to that value. Linda could strengthen a little more through tonight while it remains over warm water and in a moist and relatively low shear environment. After that time, however, cooler water and a dry and stable air mass should promote steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is in fair agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast calls for Linda to degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days when the cyclone is expected to be over sea surface temperatures of about 24 deg C. The hurricane is still moving northwestward but at a slightly slower forward speed than earlier, 320/10 kt. A continued northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is predicted for the next 24 to 36 hours while a mid-level high pressure system remains centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one, especially at days 3-5, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.3N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.7N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.8N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 26.4N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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