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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-10-16 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 160231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.2, -122.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2015-10-16 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 160231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 122.1W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 122.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-10-16 04:30:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 160230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 23:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 20:37:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 21:06:38 GMT
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