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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-10-15 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 119.2W ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 119.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-10-15 10:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 119.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 119.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 05:15:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 02:31:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 03:07:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-10-15 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150234 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official track forecast lies near the consensus aids. Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening significantly toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.9, -117.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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