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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 117.8W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 117.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-10-15 04:30:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 117.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 117.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-09 23:07:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2015 20:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2015 21:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-10-09 22:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092037 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 The depression has not changed much since the previous advisory. The associated deep convection is organized in a curved band to the north and west of the center with a more linear swath of clouds a couple of hundred n mi to the northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT remain 2.0/30 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass also showed winds around that value. Based on these data, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The depression is moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2-3 days while the ridge weakens. After that time, a turn toward the north and then northeast is predicted when the system becomes embedded in the flow ahead of a large trough. The official track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one in the short term, mainly due to the more southward initial motion, and then slightly to the east of the previous track to come into better agreement with the latest models. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening during the next few days, and accordingly most of the guidance shows the cyclone intensifying. The SHIPS model shows the shear increasing in 4 to 5 days, and that, along with more stable air and decreasing SSTs, should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and remains near the high end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 10.9N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 11.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 11.4N 137.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 140.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 11.8N 141.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 12.5N 144.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 14.3N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 17.3N 143.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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