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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-10-15 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 119.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 119.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 11:15:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 08:36:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 09:07:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-10-15 10:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data. The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame. Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario should be mentioned. A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested, although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still expected for the system during the next couple of days while the subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward adjustment to account for the initial position change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-10-15 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.2, -119.2 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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