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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 7
2015-10-16 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 161442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...DEPRESSION STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 125.2W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 125.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general heading is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-10-16 16:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 161440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 125.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 125.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 125.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 11:09:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 08:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 09:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-16 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160835 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small area of deep convection with little or no banding features. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the eastern edge of the convective region. Given that the Dvorak CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 3 days. The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-10-16 10:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 160835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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