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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 152036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 Visible satellite images suggest that the depression is not very well organized. The circulation is still somewhat elongated, and the low-level center is located near the eastern edge of a cluster of deep convection. The convection itself also appears to have lost some organization since earlier today. The maximum winds remain 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Even though environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening, the depression is not in any hurry to intensify. The hurricane intensity models and the global models all insist that the depression will strengthen soon. However, the one prominent difference in this afternoon's model suite is that the ECMWF model does not deepen the cyclone for another 48 hours or so. Since most of the guidance intensifies the system through 5 days, the NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the previous forecasts, making the cyclone a hurricane in about 2-3 days. This is also consistent with the latest intensity consensus. However, given the latest ECMWF run and the current structure of the depression, it's possible that intensification could be delayed. The initial motion is 265/11 kt. A mid-level ridge is steering the depression westward, and this motion is likely to continue for at least another 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken and give way to a broad trough west of the Baja California peninsula. This should allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward by day 5. Although the track models generally agree on this scenario, the system's weaker representation in the ECMWF during the first few days causes it to continue westward beyond 48 hours and make a more gradual turn compared to the other models. This now places the ECMWF closer to the UKMET model, which was the only outlier on the previous forecast cycle. Based on the new guidance, the NHC track forecast has been shifted westward and is a little bit slower than the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 10.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.9N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 9.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 9.9N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.1, -120.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 152035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 120.9W ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 152035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-10-15 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 152035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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