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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 14:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 14:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-10-15 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151448 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band extending to the north and northeast. The maximum winds remain 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Although the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification throughout the five-day forecast period. As such, the NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days. The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees, and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5. The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3 and northwestward by day 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of the track models are tightly clustered. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 16:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.2, -119.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-10-15 16:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 119.5W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 119.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and then reach hurricane intensity by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-10-15 16:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 151448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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