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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 665 WTPZ24 KNHC 010837 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda's strengthening last evening was short lived. Infrared and water vapor imagery show high-level clouds from a weather disturbance to the east impinging on the eastern side of Hilda's circulation, suggestive of moderate easterly shear. In fact, 85-GHz SSMIS data from 0241 UTC shows that the microwave presentation has degraded significantly, with most of the deep convection displaced to the west of the low-level center. Hilda's initial intensity is being held at 75 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 4.5 from TAFB and SAB, although that estimate could be generous. Hilda continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a subtropical ridge which is expected to build westward over the Pacific during the next few days. Despite the placement of this ridge, the dynamical models indicate that Hilda is likely to have some degree of binary interaction with the disturbance to its east and thus take on a northwestward heading on days 2 and 3. After the interaction, the ridge should then cause Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by days 4 and 5. While there are some model outliers, the spread among the guidance has actually decreased over the past 24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast, except that it is a little slower to account for recent model trends. The moderate easterly shear affecting Hilda is unlikely to abate much during the next couple of days, especially as the distance between the hurricane and the disturbance to the east decreases. Still, Hilda will remain over relatively warm waters during that period, and the models suggest that the hurricane will either maintain its current intensity or strengthen slightly through 48 hours. Hilda is then expected to move over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius, causing a steady weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous forecast to account for the current structure of the cyclone and the latest model solutions, although the forecast intensities are not as low as what is shown by the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 ...HILDA'S STRENGTHENING COMES TO A HALT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 119.6W ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 119.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to occur on Monday and Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-01 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010836 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 120W 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 23(29) 16(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 18(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 2(33) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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