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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010241 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The tropical depression's classification as a tropical cyclone is in doubt. It has not produced sustained organized deep convection for over a day and is nearly devoid of even moderate convection at this time. In addition, the surface wind field is poorly defined. A prominent swirl noted in the previous forecast package moved quickly southeastward and dissipated, leaving only a broad, elongated low centered east of previous estimates. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix still supports an intensity of 25 kt. If organized deep convection does not redevelop soon, the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough at any time. Even if the depression is able to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone, the close proximity of rapidly intensifying Hilda to the east will likely prevent it from strengthening during the next 72 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC intensity forecast. After that time, Hilda is forecast to weaken, which could open a window for intensification (or re-formation) late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is now below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours. It is worth noting that the operational regional hurricane models do not capture storm-to-storm interactions very well, and this is likely influencing the relatively high intensity forecast produced by the HWRF. The eastward adjustment of the initial position has necessitated a large eastward shift in the forecast track based on the new center position. Otherwise, the general reasoning behind the NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. A slow, westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Beyond that time, differences regarding the specifics of any direct interaction with Hilda is the primary source of uncertainty in the track forecast. Confidence in the forecast, especially at that long range, remains low. The NHC forecast is based primarily on a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-01 04:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...STATIONARY DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 127.5W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 127.5 West. Little movement is expected overnight. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated beginning Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The depression could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda has resumed strengthening during the past several hours, including the short-lived appearance of an eye in the central dense overcast. Recent 37-GHz microwave imagery confirms an eye is developing, but indicates that the eyewall is not yet closed on the northeastern side of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt, while the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 75 kt. Although Hilda is experiencing some easterly vertical shear, conditions are generally conducive for strengthening during the next 24 h, and the early part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based mainly on current trends. After that time, decreasing moisture and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady weakening. The latter part of the intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is now a little slower at 285/9. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Hilda generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with a more northwestward motion around 96 h as the cyclone passes south of a weakness in the ridge. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also adjusted northward. It should be noted, though, that the global models continue to show the possibility of erratic motion due to Hilda interacting with TD-9E to the west and the weaker, but larger, low pressure area to the east. The most drastic example of this is in the Canadian model, which shows Hilda taking a significant turn to the south before resuming a northward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-01 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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