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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-06-28 22:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 282050 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 5( 7) 11(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 6( 8) 11(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 15
2021-06-28 22:50:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 282050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 107.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Mita to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the southwestern coast of Mexico through early evening and in the watch area over the southeast portion of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-28 22:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 282047 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NO CHANGES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX. No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 282042 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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