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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-18 03:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 114.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 114.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-18 03:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened during the past several hours, with the primary remaining convection now in a band well removed from the center in the northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific. The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 180235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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