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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-11-17 21:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 613 WTPZ21 KNHC 172042 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 18
2020-11-17 21:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 614 WTNT31 KNHC 172042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 86.2W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward to the border with Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-17 21:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172040 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......170NE 90SE 50SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-11-17 18:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171738 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-11-17 15:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171441 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core, however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America. While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life- threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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