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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 20SE 20SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z...INLAND AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.8W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 87.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Guatemala border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Iota should move across portions of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Iota should weaken to a tropical depression tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. La Ceiba, Honduras, reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a few more hours near the center of Iota and in the Tropical Storm Warning area well to the north of the center. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-11-18 00:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172343 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Correct Eta to Iota in headline ...CENTER OF IOTA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-17 22:12:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated convective activity has also become organized in a band around the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours, increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-17 22:10:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172109 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1...Corretced NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard Time ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low within two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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