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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-18 09:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-18 09:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Thursday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-18 09:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-11-18 06:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...IOTA MOVING OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS TOWARDS EL SALVADOR... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 87.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Guatemala border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Iota will move across portions of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Iota should weaken to a tropical depression later this morning and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occurring along the northwestern coast of Honduras. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a couple of more hours well to the north of the center along the Caribbean coast of northwestern Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-18 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the official intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday. Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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