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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170838 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BLUEFIELDS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 16
2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 84.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ENE OF EL PIA NICARAGUA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Providencia and San Andres Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid weakening is expected today into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-11-17 06:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170559 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 83.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua this morning, and move across southern Honduras Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected to continue today and Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the islands of Providencia and San Andres. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras. El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-17 03:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170235 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas. Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance. This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-11-17 03:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170234 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BLUEFIELDS 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN ANDRES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LIMON 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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