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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-16 15:53:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161453 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days. The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial position. This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.5N 82.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 13
2020-11-16 15:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...IOTA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 82.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of Honduras from west of Punta Castilla to the Guatemala/Honduras border, including the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 82.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and will dissipate over central America by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08 inches) based on Air Force reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras by tonight. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-11-16 15:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161451 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-11-16 12:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALMOST IN THE CORE OF IOTA... ...IOTA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 81.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...245 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in Nicaragua and Honduras. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by NOAA satellite data near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 81.6 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras tonight, and will dissipate over central America by midweek. Data from NOAA satellites indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (245 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Iota could be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by late morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through the remainder of this morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible there later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras by tonight. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-16 09:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160855 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops. Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi, argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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