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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-11-16 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160231 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in the hurricane overnight. Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall, the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-11-16 03:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160231 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 80.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-11-16 00:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152335 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 79.8W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres later this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-15 21:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152037 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 The satellite presentation of Iota has continued to improve this afternoon. A ragged eye has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, with excellent banding features surrounding it. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a minimum central pressure of 977 mb during its first pass through the center earlier this afternoon, and recorded around 974 mb on its second pass. Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 74 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. Those winds support an intensity slightly lower than what was previously estimated, but given the low central pressure and downward trend, plus the fact that the plane only made a single pass in each quadrant, it is possible that the maximum winds were not sampled. In addition, the satellite presentation and pressure fall may be preceding the winds slightly. Therefore, the initial is again set at 80 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route and should provide additional information on Iota's intensity this evening. Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm waters are expected to lead to rapid strengthening until the center crosses the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Iota to reach major hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America Monday night. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows a peak slightly above the latest HFIP corrected consensus model. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. Iota is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and Florida will steer Iota westward to west-northwestward through landfall Monday night. Once Iota moves over Central America, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward through 24 hours, but little overall change was required thereafter. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope. In addition to potentially catastrophic winds, Iota is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge and extreme rainfall impacts to portions of Central America. This comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Eta significantly impacted the area. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.3N 79.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-15 21:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152036 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 49(51) 39(90) 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 14(14) 56(70) 6(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 7( 7) 43(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 20 41(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAN ANDRES 50 3 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN ANDRES 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LIMON 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLON 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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