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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-01 13:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 1 the center of FRED was located near 18.2, -26.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 10A
2015-09-01 13:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011150 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 800 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 ...FRED MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 26.5W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The meteorological service of the Cape Verde Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 26.5 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will continue to move away from the northwestern Cape Verde Islands today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the northwestern Cape Verde Islands this morning as Fred continues to move away from the Cape Verde Islands. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-01 11:13:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 08:50:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 09:07:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-09-01 10:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 010849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-01 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010849 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 After a brief convective hiatus between about 0000-0200 UTC, deep convection has redeveloped over the center of Fred and also in the northern semicircle. Several passive microwave satellite images indicate that Fred's low-level center is a little south of the previous advisory track, due to southerly vertical wind shear displacing most of the convection to the north of the center. However, that same imagery also indicated that Fred still has a low-level circulation that is quite robust, including a nearly closed 20 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt based on microwave fixes. Fred is expected to move between west-northwest and northwest for the next 72 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone gradually builds westward. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast due to a deep-layer trough currently over eastern Canada that is expected to dig southeastward over the central Atlantic and erode the ridge. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this developing pattern change. However, there are significant differences in the model solutions with the HWRF, GFS, and GFDL models keeping Fred stronger and making the northward turn sooner, whereas the weaker solution models like the UKMET and ECMWF take a weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone farther west before turning it northward. The official forecast track is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position, and follows a blend of the weaker UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Fred is expected to gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the cyclone moves into an environment of increasing southwesterly vertical wind in excess of 20 kt and drier and more stable air, and over SSTs of near 26 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, as well as the consensus model IVCN. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.0N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 18.8N 27.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 19.7N 29.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 20.3N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 21.0N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.3N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 26.0N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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