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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A new burst of deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming more symmetric. Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also reveal increased banding in all quadrants. AMSR-2 and GCOM microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in the 37 GHz imagery. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT. Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient mid-level moisture during the next day or so. Therefore, additional strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. This is supported by the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to hurricane status. In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable air mass. This should result in weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h. Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial motion estimate is 310/14 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged from before. The cyclone should move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so. In a couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and central Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.6N 22.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.2N 26.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.2N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.6N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 21.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 22.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

2015-08-30 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 14.4, -21.3 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 4

2015-08-30 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 ...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 21.3W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 21.3 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Fred is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Cape Verde Islands overnight, with hurricane conditions beginning late tonight or early Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-08-30 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 302034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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