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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 9

2019-09-24 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240849 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 65.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 65.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics

2019-09-24 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:44:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 03:32:02 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)

2019-09-24 07:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 16.3, -65.7 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 8A

2019-09-24 07:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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