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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Public Advisory Number 21
2017-07-12 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 ...EUGENE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 122.5W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 122.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Eugene is expected to dissipate in two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California will be diminishing on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-07-12 22:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122038 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 122.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 122.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 122.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression Eugene Graphics
2017-07-12 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 14:57:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 15:22:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-07-12 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121452 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Eugene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene is not quite ready to quit. Deep convection continues in the northeastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep nor extensive. Given the spin-down likely occuring since the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass as well as the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB, the intensity is assessed at 30 kt, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression. The system should lose deep convection shortly as it moves over 21C SSTs and become a remnant low by tonight. By day 3 or 4, Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation. The track forecast is slightly east of the previous advisory at days 2 and 3 and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 28.5N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-07-12 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121451 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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