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Tropical Storm EUGENE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-07-12 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Although deep convection continues to dwindle overall, a narrow band of deep convection has continued to persist in the northern semicircle and near the center. As a result, Eugene is being maintained as a 40-kt sheared tropical cyclone for this advisory based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of T2.7/39 kt and the robust low-level circulation seen in visible satellite imagery. The initial motion remains northwestward or 320/08 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Eugene is expected to keep the weakening cyclone on a northwestward track throughout the forecast period, which will be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed after 24 hours. The NHC track guidance has shifted to the west, thus the official forecast has also been shifted to the left of the previous advisory, similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Eugene will continue to weaken throughout the next 4 days as a result of the ingestion of drier and more stable air, and from moving over colder SSTs of near 20 deg C by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, which has Eugene degenerating to a remnant low pressure system by 18-24 hours, and dissipating by 120 hours, if not sooner. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple of days, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm EUGENE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-07-12 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm EUGENE (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-12 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 the center of EUGENE was located near 22.3, -120.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm EUGENE Public Advisory Number 18
2017-07-12 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 ...EUGENE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 120.5W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 120.5 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eugene is expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm EUGENE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-07-12 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 120.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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