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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-07-10 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102034 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene's convective presentation has continued to wane significantly during the past six hours. Cloud tops near the center have warmed to barely -65C and the overall cloud pattern has become elongated northwest-to-southeast. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no significant changes to the previous track and intensity forecasts or reasonings. Eugene is expected to continue to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the forecast period, and steadily or rapidly weaken while moving over much colder waters characterized by 25C-22C SSTs. The track and intensity forecasts closely follow the TVCN and IVCN consensus models, respectively. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.1N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 23.4N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/1800Z 24.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 26.7N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 28.3N 124.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 29.5N 127.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-10 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WELL AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 the center of Eugene was located near 19.4, -117.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory Number 13
2017-07-10 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Eugene Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 ...EUGENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WELL AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eugene was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 117.8 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Eugene is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or Tuesday morning and a remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California by tonight and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-07-10 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102034 PWSEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-07-10 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102033 TCMEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC MON JUL 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.4N 120.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.6N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.3N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 29.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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