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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 15
2017-07-11 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 ...EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 118.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 118.7 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eugene is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-07-11 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-07-11 10:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-11 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 02:39:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 02:39:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-07-11 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C. The central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the current intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB. Although the storm continues to exhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will be moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days. Continued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning. The motion remains near 325/9. There are no important changes to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level anticyclone to the northeast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward heading for the next few days, and until dissipation. A slight leftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening cyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus prediction. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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