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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-07-11 22:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 120.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 120.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-11 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 14:59:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 15:23:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-07-11 16:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 111452 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-11 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEAKENING EUGENE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 the center of Eugene was located near 21.3, -119.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 16
2017-07-11 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111452 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 ...WEAKENING EUGENE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 119.6W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 119.6 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple days. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eugene is expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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