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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-08-18 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 180241 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-08-18 04:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 37.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 37.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics
2013-08-17 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2013 20:32:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2013 20:31:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-08-17 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172031 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS. ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.5N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 23.0N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.0N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 26.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-17 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of ERIN was located near 21.0, -37.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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