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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2013-08-17 04:30:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 170230 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 12 14 15 22 NA TROP DEPRESSION 33 35 43 39 37 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 66 59 44 43 44 36 NA HURRICANE X 2 2 3 4 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 2 3 4 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics

2013-08-16 23:08:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 20:31:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 21:04:45 GMT

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-08-16 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162030 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.8N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.4N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 20.9N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 22.7N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 25.0N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 28.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2013-08-16 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 162030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 12 14 16 15 18 TROP DEPRESSION 58 43 40 37 35 34 34 TROPICAL STORM 40 48 46 45 45 47 45 HURRICANE 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 3 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)

2013-08-16 22:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of ERIN was located near 17.7, -33.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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