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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-08-17 10:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170841 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF... UKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS. THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-17 10:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of ERIN was located near 18.9, -35.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 10
2013-08-17 10:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170840 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 ...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 35.6W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-08-17 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170840 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 35.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 35.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-08-17 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 170840 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 12 14 15 22 NA TROP DEPRESSION 33 35 43 39 37 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 66 59 44 43 44 36 NA HURRICANE X 2 2 3 4 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 2 3 4 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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