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Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics
2013-08-17 05:11:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2013 02:31:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2013 03:07:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-08-17 04:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170230 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE COLD CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIP MGSG6 PASSED NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT. A REVIEW OF THE HISTORY OF THE SHIP WIND DATA SUGGESTS THE REPORT IS PROBABLY A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH...BUT IT EASILY SUPPORTS A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE ERIN MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY 36H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE SSTS NOTABLY INCREASE IN A FEW DAYS...A COMBINATION OF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...STRONG SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ERIN TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96H. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE EVEN EARLIER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST. ERIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT... ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS HARDER TO LOCATE NOW DUE TO ALL OF THE CONVECTION. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERIN ENCOUNTERS A REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36H...THEN IS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET... GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 19.5N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 20.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.7N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 21.0N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 24.5N 51.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-17 04:30:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of ERIN was located near 18.5, -34.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 9
2013-08-17 04:30:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170230 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 ...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 34.5W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 9
2013-08-17 04:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170230 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 34.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 34.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.7N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 42.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 34.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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