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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-08-16 04:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160245 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY A SMALL BURST HAS FORMED EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPARENTLY WEST OF THE MID- LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SEEMS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BUT A LIMITING FACTOR OF MARGINAL SSTS. IN A FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...WHICH WOULD FACILITATE RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE OF ERIN. THUS...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER DAY 3...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. MICROWAVE FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/13. THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE. IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW ENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.5N 29.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.6N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.6N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 21.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 22.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-08-16 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 35.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.6N 37.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 29.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-16 04:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of ERIN was located near 15.5, -29.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 5
2013-08-16 04:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 ...ERIN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 29.1W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-08-16 04:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 160236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 3 4 6 13 23 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 15 19 21 32 35 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 70 63 60 50 40 HURRICANE 1 5 11 14 13 5 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 12 12 4 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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