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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics

2013-08-18 11:08:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 08:35:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 09:04:49 GMT

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-08-18 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A FEW DAYS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)

2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of ERIN was located near 20.7, -38.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 14

2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 38.4W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 180831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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