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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 12

2013-08-17 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 ...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 37.0W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2013-08-17 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 172030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 10 12 20 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 40 39 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 49 45 37 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 2 3 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 3 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 12

2013-08-17 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 37.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 37.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-08-17 16:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. ERIN IS STILL OVER 25-26C WATERS...AND ALTHOUGH THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF DRY STABLE AIR COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ERIN DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THIS CERTAINLY COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. A TURN TO THE LEFT...OR WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IF ERIN SURVIVES BEYOND A FEW DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 21.1N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 25.0N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 28.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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