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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)

2013-08-16 16:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of ERIN was located near 16.9, -32.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 7

2013-08-16 16:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 ...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 32.1W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 7

2013-08-16 16:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161430 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 32.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 32.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics

2013-08-16 11:07:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 08:33:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 09:03:46 GMT

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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-08-16 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160832 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE NEAT 0400 UTC WAS 31 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM MODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE ERIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C...AND METEOSAT AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HOURS AGO...AND THUS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER 72 HOURS...ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MORE DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME. AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEFORE 120 HOURS...AS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 20.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 24.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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