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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2013-08-15 16:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 151440 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 3 5 8 17 TROP DEPRESSION 11 13 17 14 16 22 34 TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 64 61 59 45 HURRICANE 2 8 10 20 18 11 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 9 17 16 9 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-08-15 16:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151439 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 26.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 26.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 25.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 28.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 31.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N 33.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 35.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 26.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics

2013-08-15 13:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 11:39:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 09:04:48 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)

2013-08-15 13:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of ERIN was located near 14.5, -25.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 2A

2013-08-15 13:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151138 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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