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Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics
2013-08-15 23:07:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 20:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-15 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152032 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERIN HAS EVOLVED INTO ONE THAT FEATURES MORE BANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OF 26-27C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SSTS INCREASE...ERIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A SIZEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW A DEEPER REPRESENTATION OF ERIN MOVING MORE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AZORES. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS SHOW ERIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A TURN BACK TOWARD THE LEFT IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.5N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 18.3N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-15 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of ERIN was located near 15.0, -27.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 4
2013-08-15 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013 ...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 27.5W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-08-15 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 27.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 27.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 27.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 29.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 27.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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