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Tropical Storm ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-08-15 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 152031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 3 5 8 17 TROP DEPRESSION 11 13 17 14 16 22 34 TROPICAL STORM 87 77 70 64 61 59 45 HURRICANE 2 8 10 20 18 11 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 9 17 16 9 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm ERIN Graphics
2013-08-15 17:07:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 14:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 15:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-15 16:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151440 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SITUATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...WITH A SMALL BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 1102 UTC ASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWED WINDS OF 32 KT. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SSTS OF 26-27C...LOW SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF SHOW A WEAK OR DISSIPATING SYSTEM BY DAY 5...HOWEVER THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WAS ALSO HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF ERIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. BASED ON A SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER POSITION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE GFDL... GFDL ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FIM...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HWRF ALL SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOUTHERN CAMP OF MODELS AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.0N 28.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-15 16:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of ERIN was located near 14.4, -26.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIN Public Advisory Number 3
2013-08-15 16:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 ...ERIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 26.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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