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Remnants of Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 30
2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 646 WTPZ25 KNHC 021434 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 114.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSA $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Remnants of Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2018-10-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 614 FOPZ15 KNHC 021434 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF ROSA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 020851 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula. The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon. Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight. Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 284 FOPZ15 KNHC 020851 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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