je.st
news
Tag: rosa
Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 25A
2018-10-01 13:53:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 528 WTPZ35 KNHC 011153 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 116.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
rosa
Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-01 13:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 11:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:40:31 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
rosa
tropical
Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-01 10:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:40:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:40:31 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
rosa
tropical
Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-10-01 10:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 431 WTPZ45 KNHC 010839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Convection has been steadily decreasing due to the combination of southwesterly shear of about 30 kt and cool SSTs of less than 24 deg C. As a result, only a small patch of thunderstorms remains in the northeastern quadrant of Rosa's circulation. ASCAT passes around 0414Z and 0516Z only indicated wind speeds of 41-42 kt in the eastern semicircle. Assuming that some undersampling is occurring, the intensity has only been decreased to 45 kt for this advisory. Additional weakening is expected due to a further increase in the vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone. The official intensity forecast calls for Rosa to be near 35 kt at the time of landfall later today, but it is possible that more weakening could occur than currently indicated. Regardless, strong tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be widespread across the higher elevations of the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become remnant low before the cyclone reaches Arizona due to the rugged terrain of Baja and northwestern Mexico, and the continued strong wind shear. Rosa is moving northeastward now, or 035/10 kt. A northeastward to north-northeastward motion is expected until and after landfall, with some acceleration beginning later tonight. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast track lies close to the previous track and an average of the TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula later today, especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.7N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF 36H 02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
rosa
Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-01 10:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 26.7, -117.0 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
rosa
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »