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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-01 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 27.5, -116.5 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-10-01 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 199 FOPZ15 KNHC 011432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ENSENADA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) P ABREOJOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X 27(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) P PENASCO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 26
2018-10-01 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 196 WTPZ35 KNHC 011432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...ROSA NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 116.5W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 26
2018-10-01 16:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 713 WTPZ25 KNHC 011431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 116.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 116.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-01 13:53:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 27.2, -116.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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