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Summary for Tropical Depression Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Rosa was located near 29.3, -114.9 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 194 WTPZ25 KNHC 020851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rosa Public Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 020851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rosa Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of Rosa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rosa was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move across the Baja California peninsula and into the northern Gulf of California this morning. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over northern Mexico or the southwestern United States later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations into Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over the central portions of the Baja California peninsula this morning, especially over higher elevations. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 07:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 29.0, -115.1 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 28A
2018-10-02 07:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 026 WTPZ35 KNHC 020545 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 115.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.1 West. Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions of the warning area, especially over higher elevations. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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