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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 07:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 05:45:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 03:34:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 04:45:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:45:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:45:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-10-02 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 201 WTPZ45 KNHC 020242 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Rosa continues to lack deep convection near the center, which is currently over sea surface temperatures of 21C. However, strong convection is occurring to the northeast of the center over the northern Gulf of California and the adjacent land areas. The Mexican automated station at Isla Cedros reported 30 kt winds with gusts near 40 kt a few hours ago, and passive microwave data suggests the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently moving onshore south of Punta Eugenia where no surface observations are available. The initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Rosa should weaken as it crosses Baja California, but it is likely the warm water of the Gulf of California will maintain the system as a tropical cyclone until final landfall in northwestern Mexico. After that landfall, Rosa should quickly degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. The initial motion is 035/9. Rosa should move generally northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific until the cyclone dissipates. The dynamical models suggests the possibility that the center of Rosa will reform over the Gulf of California in the next 12 h, which may lead to some erratic changes in the forward speed. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.9N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 04:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ROSA PASSING NORTH OF ISLA CEDROS AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Rosa was located near 28.9, -115.3 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-10-02 04:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 074 FOPZ15 KNHC 020242 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 10 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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